The 2024 National Van Lines Migration Report is unique in that it uses real-time data, compiled each quarter of the year to determine where people may be moving to and from.
In 2023, the choice to relocate homes and businesses is pivotal for numerous individuals. The “stay or go” dilemma remains one of individuals’ most crucial considerations. Understanding the dynamics of U.S. migration trends holds paramount significance.
The massive flux of migration reshapes economic dynamics and prowess among states. Being attuned to migration trends equips individuals and businesses with the insights to make strategic and well-informed decisions regarding their future investments.
While the moving industry underwent short-term disruptions in 2020 and 2021 due to the impact of Covid, enduring migration patterns continue to influence American consumers, regulatory landscapes, and remote work opportunities. Notably, ongoing narratives depict a substantial exodus from California and New York, with individuals gravitating toward Texas and Florida. It begs the question: which other states are witnessing significant shifts in their population?
Movement: Pinning Down Trends
Having access to actual data always supersedes media perceptions. Essential resources give credible insight. Data is now available from the 2020 United States Census – a thorough way to gain facts about national, state, city and local populations. Expert analysts will study its content for months and years to come.
At National Van Lines, US migration trends provide foundational information for our strategic and operational plans. We watch movement flows closely so that we can best serve our customers.
In this paper, we share facts about:
- National Van Lines 2023 inbound and outbound moves
- “U.S. Population Projected to Begin Declining in Second Half of Century” press release
Tim Helenthal, Chairman and CEO of National Van Lines shares, “Understanding migration patterns benefits our customers and industry partners. It’s important to know the areas of growth and decline in the United States. When considering a move, customers want to know the areas where the demand for housing, jobs and government services are high.”
Online Searches: Forecast Customer Moving Plans
In long-distance relocation considerations, National Van Lines diligently tracks the preferences shaping the movement landscape for 2024. Our insights, derived from website analytics and engagement to shed light on the intentions of potential movers, as evidenced by customer interactions with our national map.
These analytics serve as a powerful precursor to our customers’ future moving plans. By discerning the states that capture the attention of web visitors, coupled with in-marketing attribution, we gain a comprehensive understanding of the geographical destinations our potential customers are contemplating. The top 10 states emerging from this analytical lens are as follows:
- New York
- North Carolina
This data anticipates our customers’ desires and effectively informs our strategic approach to reaching them. As we delve into the nuanced metrics of user engagement, including new users, engaged sessions, and average engagement time, we are poised to navigate the evolving landscape of long-distance moving preferences with precision and foresight.
Zooming in on the US Census: Macro and Micro Detail
Sandra Johnson, a demographer at the Census Bureau stated “The U.S. has experienced notable shifts in the components of population change over the last five years,”. She goes on to explain the short and long-term effects of covid,“ Some of these, like the increases in mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to be short-term while others, including the declines in fertility that have persisted for decades, are likely to continue into the future. Incorporating additional years of data on births, deaths and international migration into our projections process resulted in a slower pace of population growth through 2060 than was previously projected.”
With increased immigration and lower birth rates, the impact on migratory results will continue to shift in the coming year. Looking at previous data as a comparison, some states stayed at the top for moving data.
Geographical Diversity in Migration Patterns:
The migration trends observed in the top 10 states reveal considerable geographical diversity. This diversity indicates that various factors, including economic opportunities, climate, and lifestyle preferences, influence individuals’ decisions to relocate.
Inbound Migration: 5130
Outbound Migration: 3084
Inbound Migration: 5081
Outbound Migration: 4178
Inbound Migration: 2810
Outbound Migration: 5884
North Carolina (NC):
Inbound Migration: 1977
Outbound Migration: 1768
Inbound Migration: 1780
Outbound Migration: 3563
Inbound Migration: 1744
Outbound Migration: 723
Inbound Migration: 1399
Outbound Migration: 5881
Inbound Migration: 1299
Outbound Migration: 2904
Inbound Migration: 1237
Outbound Migration: 2710
New York (NY):
Inbound Migration: 1225
Outbound Migration: 1227
Florida’s Consistent Growth: Florida maintains a consistent presence in both years, underscoring its attractiveness as a migration destination. Texas’ Enduring Appeal: Texas is a notable presence in both years, reaffirming its status as a magnet for population growth. Emergence of Virginia: Virginia has surged in the current year, reflecting a noteworthy shift in migration patterns. New York and Illinois Contrasts: While New York and Illinois were among the top states in the current year, they also appear in the states with the least growth in the previous year.
As we wrap up this year’s migration analysis, it’s clear that some states stay popular while others see population changes. These insights are crucial for policymakers, businesses, and researchers to understand and adapt to the evolving demographics. Keeping an eye on migration trends is essential for informed decision-making and planning.
Leading the list, California exhibits consistently high engaged sessions, extended average engagement times, and substantial page views. These metrics underscore sustained interest and consideration among users.
Emerging as a prominent choice for potential movers, Florida showcases strong user engagement, a favorable engagement rate, and significant page views. It positions itself as a top contender for relocation.
Maintaining its appeal as a preferred destination, Texas boasts a notable engagement rate and considerable page views. This reflects the sustained interest among users.
Georgia solidifies its position as an attractive state for potential movers by demonstrating robust user engagement, particularly in engaged sessions and average engagement times.
Outbound Migration Patterns:
Analyzing states users are currently relocating from reveals the following trends:
States Losing Population
California (In: 2810, Out: 5884): Challenges such as high living costs and housing shortages contribute to a net migration loss, especially among middle-income individuals and families.
New York (In: 1225, Out: 1227): New York faces urban challenges and high taxes, leading to a notable outbound migration trend.
Illinois (In: 1237, Out: 2710): Economic struggles, high taxes, and concerns about crime contribute to a net migration loss, particularly among young professional
Predictions for 2024:
Continued Trends and Predictions:
Considering the current trends, it is reasonable to anticipate continued interest in states such as California, Florida, and Texas. These states consistently exhibit high user engagement metrics, reflecting sustained interest and consideration for potential relocation. The substantial inbound and outbound migration observed in these states suggests a dynamic interplay of factors influencing individuals’ decisions to move.
Factors Contributing to Continued Interest:
Economic Opportunities: States with robust economies, such as California and Texas, are likely to attract individuals seeking employment and business prospects.
Climate and Lifestyle Preferences: Florida’s appeal may be attributed to its favorable climate, while diverse lifestyle options in Texas and California contribute to its enduring attractiveness.
Cultural and Educational Hubs: Regions like California and New York, known for cultural richness and educational institutions, continue to draw individuals seeking intellectual and cultural pursuits.
As we look ahead, monitoring these trends will provide valuable insights for policymakers, businesses, and researchers, enabling them to adapt strategies and services to meet the evolving needs of a mobile population. However, it’s crucial to note that migration patterns can be influenced by unforeseen events, necessitating continuous observation and analysis.
However, it is crucial to acknowledge that migration patterns are multifaceted and can be influenced by external factors such as economic conditions, job opportunities, and unforeseen events. This report focuses on user engagement data, providing valuable insights into user preferences, but it does not account for the myriad factors that may influence actual migration patterns.
As we move forward into 2024, monitoring these trends will be essential for policymakers, businesses, and researchers seeking to understand and respond to changing population dynamics.