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Introduction

US Migration: Fact Vs. Myth in 2020-2021

States Americans Prefer to Call Home

A major decision point for thousands of people is moving their homes and businesses. Whether or not to “stay or go” is one of the most important choices that individuals make. 

Why is it important to pay attention to US migration trends?

Large-scale migration shifts economic power and strength among the states. 

Having knowledge about migration trends helps individuals and companies make strategic and well-informed decisions about where to invest their futures. 

Recognizing migration trends takes time. In 2020 and 2021, the moving industry experienced short-term changes because of Covid. Yet, there are longer-term migration patterns that drive American consumers, regulatory environments and work-from-home opportunities. 

For example, the media presents a mass exodus out of California and New York with people fleeing to Texas and Florida. Are these perceptions true or exaggerations? What other states are experiencing strong population shifts? 

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Online Searches: Forecast Customer Moving Plans

Which states are long-distance movers considering? 

At National Van Lines, intent is tracked via website analytics. Customer visits on the national map are one indicator of future moving plans. 

These analytics anticipate our customers’ desires or plans to move. 

Seeing interest from web visitors, along with in-marketing attribution, paints a good picture of where our potential customers will come from. Tracking views also guides us on how to best reach them. The top 10 states with the most initial visits include:

2019

  1. California
  2. Texas
  3. New York
  4. Massachusetts
  5. Illinois
  6. Florida
  7. Oregon
  8. Washington
  9. Virginia
  10. New Jersey

2020

  1. California
  2. Massachusetts
  3. New York
  4. Texas
  5. Florida
  6. Illinois
  7. Oregon
  8. Washington
  9. New Jersey
  10. Virginia

There is consistency in the top ten for 2019 and 2020. The most notable changes are Massachusetts – jumping from the 4th slot in 2019 to the 2nd slot in 2020 and Texas – slipping to the 4th slot in 2020 from the 2nd slot.  

The following states had the largest increase in individual views from 2019 to 2020. This data tells us that people coming from these specific states are exploring the possibility of a move. 

  1. Delaware: 1091%
  2. Massachusetts: 879%
  3. Oregon: 366%
  4. Kansas: 315%
  5. Idaho: 286%
  6. Illinois: 259%
  7. New York: 157%
  8. Maine: 125%
  9. North Carolina: 93%
  10. Arizona: 86%

There are three states that consistently received the least views for 2019 and 2020. It appears that people from these states may not be moving any time soon. 

  1. South Dakota
  2. North Dakota
  3. Alaska
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The Real Facts: Actual 2020 Interstate Moves – US (TBD)

US Migration finder to explores the in and outflows of all of the states based on US Census data for years between 2010 to 2021. If you click on the “Current Interest” button, you will see year to date interest in relocation on a State by State basis. The interest data is updated monthly.

Zooming in on the US Census: Macro and Micro Detail

Every ten years, Congress is empowered by the Constitution to execute a population count of the United States. The goal of the census is to reapportion the 435 state seats in the United States House of Representatives.

The 2021 Vintage Population Estimate was released to the public on Dec. 21, 2021. This estimate of population measures changes each year until the next US Census.

The 2020 census data and 2021 Vintage Population Estimate gives interesting insight into US population changes.

The 2020 and 2021 data shares that the South and West are growing faster than the Northeast and Midwest.

The South’s numeric increase of 12.6 million was the largest of any region and represented just over one-half (54.7 percent) of the national increase of 23.1 million. The West’s increase of 6.7 million people was the second-largest, followed by the Midwest (up 1.9 million) and Northeast (up 1.8 million).

Idaho is the fastest-growing state with an 21.2% increase between 2010 and 2021, while West Virginia declined the most.

The early 2020 Census results immediately directed a shift in state representation in the House of Representatives. Due to population growth, six states will gain seats in the House: Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon. Seven states will lose House seats: California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

“Since 1940, the regional trend with apportionment has been an increase in the number of congressional seats for South and West and a loss of congressional seats for the North and Northeast and Midwest. More specifically since 1940 there has been a combined net shift of 84 seats to the South and West Regions.”

NWX-US Dept. of Commerce, Moderator Kristina Barrett, 4-26-21

More data analysis will be available in the coming months. This information is eagerly anticipated because of its implications for federal funding that will impact schools, transportation, roads, businesses and more.

In the year after the 2020 US Census was taken, population only grew by .1%, which was the lowest rate since the founding of this country, which is attributed to decreased fertility, decreased net international migration and increased mortality due in part to the COVID-19 pandemic.*

During the one year between July 1., 2020 and July 1, 2021:

  • Idaho had the biggest growth increase–from 1,847,772 to 1,900,923, a growth of 2.9%. Utah and Montana were close behind, with 1.7% population growth increase for each.
  • District of Columbia had the largest decline in population–2.9% down in a year. New York had a decline of 1.6% and Illinois had a 0.9% population decline in that year.

US Census Facts – Making History* **

  • Total US Population is the largest ever – with more than 331,893,745 people.
  • Since 2010 Census, US Population only grew 7.5%, which is the lowest growth percentage since the 1940 Census at 7.3%.
  • Population growth in the Midwest has been declining since the 2000 Census.
  • The South and West have consistently outgrown the population in the Northeast and Midwest for the last 100 years. The highest growth rate in the South and West this century was the 1910 Census survey followed by 1950 and 1960.
  • The California Census shows that for the first time in 100 years the state dropped to single digit growth – with an all-time low of 5.3%.
  • Illinois Census numbers show that for the first time in 100 years, the state has negative growth of -1.2%.
  • West Virginia beat out Illinois with negative growth at -3.8%. West Virginia has seen negative growth numbers for four out of the last 12 Census surveys. North Dakota is the only other state that has had negative growth numbers for four out of the last 12 Census reports.

* From Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, District of Columbia and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021, The United States Census Bureau, January 10, 2022.

**From Historical Population Change Data (1910-2020), The United States Census Bureau, April 26, 2021 

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Moving Industry Shake Ups: Shorter Moves Impact Drivers

For the moving industry, these trends affect operational strategies. Since cross-country moves have declined, driver recruitment is impacted. Moves, relegated to specific locations, such as Florida or Texas, result in a large number of trucks traveling to one location and/or region. This scenario puts a logistical strain on the industry.

In the past, drivers may be away from home weeks at a time. The current patterns set-up drivers to do shorter trips and potentially be at home more.  Recruiting is happening in key states and regions. More regional opportunities open up for drivers. For local movers, shorter moves can mean a boom.

New truck driver skills are needed to meet industry changes.

“If current relocation trends continue, trainings and certifications that speak more towards low density, rural homes will become more useful than trainings for high density city moves. Technology is growing at a rapid pace so the ability to train employees for virtual surveys, communicate with customers remotely and provide great customer service from afar become more valuable. Companies that put the effort into training and certifying employees offer customers a peace of mind,“ says Katie McMichael, Director Moving and Storage Convention for the American Trucking Association.

Van lines want to ensure the appropriate agent representation.

Tim Helenthal, Chairman and CEO of National Van Lines shares, “For the moving industry, we have to be flexible. We have to be willing to change processes and goals to meet customer needs. We can’t rely on yesterday’s business model to support today’s demand. Processes must be reinvented.”

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Conclusion: Start the Trip Right

Step One for Customer – Plan Ahead

Any challenging time in the economy results in the need for cost cutting on the consumer’s part. Customers need to make the best choices when planning a move. When picking up the phone to call a mover, it’s important for a customer to understand that there are listed professional movers and moving brokers.

“Unlicensed rouge movers bring no value or assets to the industry. They take the customer off the marketplace while not being experts. Using freight trucks instead of moving trucks, they double delivery prices. Buyer be aware,” shares Mark Doyle, President, National Van Lines.

Critical questions customers need to ask a potential moving company include:

  1. Will you broker my move to someone else?
  2. Do you have a license?
  3. Do you own your own trucks and use your own crews?

Knowing these facts save money, time and eliminates stress.

Step One for Moving Industry – Plan Ahead

Moving industry leaders must pay careful attention to trends so that healthy competition and timely and productive services are available to moving customers across the country.

“Laborers are an integral part of every company and driver crew. The pandemic displaced many of these workers into new careers or opportunities. The moving industry is struggling to find and retain its employee base as business heats up,” says Katie McMichael, Director Moving and Storage Conference for the American Trucking Association. “Congress is also playing a part in industry challenges. Independent contractor drivers and labor are staples in our industry. The U.S. government is taking an interest in redefining with it means to be an independent contractor and how companies us them. This determination is happening at Federal and State levels, so companies need to prepare to comply with a myriad of standards and laws as the debate rages on.”

It’s clear that the changes in population migration between 2010 and 2021 were influenced by a number of factors, including economy, job opportunities and the Covid-19 pandemic. Seeing where Americans are going and why can help us determine how to serve our customers most effectively. As more data is collected and released, our analytics and tactics will adjust. National Van Lines will update this document as more information comes out. 

About Us:

National Van Lines, Inc. is a first-class van line that has been trusted by more than one million families for the last 90+ years. As a team of qualified professional movers, the National Van Lines’ team handles all types of moving projects from long distance moves to small relocations.

For more information on reasons to trust National Van Lines with your precious household items and business assets, visit our website at: https://www.nationalvanlines.com/about/why-choose-national-van-lines

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